It will be more difficult but not worse - in this way the PAIiIZ president, Sławomir Majman, summed up the experts’ discussion on 2012 foreign direct investment inflows forecasts.
The conference „What will 2012 bring for the investment sector?”, held on January 12th 2012 at the PAIiIZ seat, was to discuss changes that are likely to occur in the FDI inflow this year.
All the speakers agreed that turbulences on the global market and diminution of Poland’s investment incentives are factors that can have substantial influence on the level and structure of the foreign direct investments. Teresa Kamińska, the President of the Pomeranian Special Economic Zone, underlined that one of the key factors for investors is stability - not only financial or political but also legal. Therefore, an uncertain future of the Special Economic Zones (SEZ), that are due to end in 2020, do not encourage current investors to further develop their business in Poland. The SEZ, from the very beginning of their existence, were one of the most important investment incentives. Thus, no clear information about their fate can have a negative effect on the Poland’s appeal for the investors. Listing positive symptoms, she mentioned development of harbours in Poland that already receive the largest units. Thanks to that, Poland has an opportunity to become a transit centre and receive more and more investments from the logistic sector.
 From the left: Adam Żołnowski - PwC, Marek Łyżwa - PAIiIZ Vice-President, Janusz Jankowiak - Chief Economist, Polish Business Roundtable, Paweł Tynel - E&Y, prof. Ryszard Michalski - Director of the Institute for Market Research, Marek Cieślak - First Vice-President of Łódź City, Teresa Kamińska -Presient of Pomeranian SEZ Board, Sławomir Majman - President of PAIiIZ Board. |
As it was mentioned by the PAIiIZ’s President Sławomir Majman, the EU funds for supporting large investments will end this year - the last call for proposals is going to take place this month. PAIiIZ will be able to carry on doing its job, yet it will have less and less instruments - as it was summed up by Paweł Tynel, the Head of Grants and Incentives Advisory Services Department, Ernst & Young.
Adam Żołnowski, Director in PwC, drew attention to good sides of the crisis: - American investor, that we have been cooperating with for some time already, is able to purchase an investment area for 20-30% less now than a couple of months ago. He underlined also that the government grants played a very important role for the investors - last week three companies - Samsung, PGW and TJX received a government support in the framework of a multi-year programme. These grants do not constitute a substantial financial support but are a signal for the foreign investors that the government supports their activities. Janusz Jankowiak, Chief Economist in the Polish Business Roundtable, sees a risk in a unit cost of working that are prone to considerable changes - There is still enough room for manoeuvre in comparison to the developing countries but not necessarily to our neighbours - he said.
Adam Żołnowski, Director in PwC, drew attention to good sides of the crisis: - American investor, that we have been cooperating with for some time already, is able to purchase an investment area for 20-30% less now than a couple of months ago. He underlined also that the government grants played a very important role for the investors - last week three companies - Samsung, PGW and TJX received a government support in the framework of a multi-year programme. These grants do not constitute a substantial financial support but are a signal for the foreign investors that the government supports their activities. Janusz Jankowiak, Chief Economist in the Polish Business Roundtable, sees a risk in a unit cost of working that are prone to considerable changes - There is still enough room for manoeuvre in comparison to the developing countries but not necessarily to our neighbours - he said.
Experts’ opinions on the geographical structure of the FDI inflows in 2012 were divided: it was pointed out that foreign investments flows can be expected from big European countries and the USA but also from Latin America and Asian countries with special stress on China.
2012 FDI inflows forecasts were in the most part relatively positive. President Kamińska said that judging from the situation in the Pomeranian SEZ this year will not be worse from the previous one. According to prof. Ryszard Michalski, Director of the Institute for Market, Consumption and Business Cycles Research (IBRKK) 2012 will be the year of decreasing prices for the land and workforce, as an effect of a weak currency (PLN). Janusz Jankowiak paints the nearest future in rather break colours: - 2012 will be slightly worse that 2011 with further deterioration of Polish net investment position - he said. The representatives of the consultancies cooperating with foreign investors were of the opposite opinion.
They mentioned that currently Poland is in the lead among the countries the most often chosen by foreign investors as their investment locations. It is a clear improvement in comparison to the situation that we witnessed a couple of years ago when Poland was being rejected at a very early stage of selection. Adam Żołnowski from PwC stated that 2012 will not be worse than 2011. Paweł Tynel expects that this year will be competitive but he does not exclude some deterioration after 2014.
Last year proved very good for foreign investments - despite the global economic crisis the investment projects concluded with the participation of the Polish Information and Foreign Investment Agency in 2011 consist 173% of 2010 value (PAIiIZ)
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Tuesday night, 1/24/12
Thursday, 1/26/12
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Poland’s significant rise in this year’s UNCTAD's Investment Report (5 points up from the 11th position in 2010) confirms the country’s strong position on the international investment scene - Poland was only preceded by world greatest economies of China and the USA and ranked before Germany and the UK. Despite the fall in FDI inflow to Poland in 2010 (from USD 13.7 bn to USD 9.7 bn) in 2011 FDI recovery and upward tendencies in the inflow can now clearly be seen - FDI inflow after the first 5 months of the year totalled EUR 4.2 bn i.e. 86% of the inflow recorded in the first 5 months of 2010 what accounts for 62% of the whole 2010 FDI inflow to the country. In the European context the upward trend has already found confirmation in this year’s annual survey of Investment Attractiveness of Europe launched by E&Y in June 2011. The report says that last year Poland recorded the highest increase in the number of FDI projects across Europe - 40% more than in 2009.
